Could a climate breakdown scenario occur in the next ten years?

I watched Extinction Rebellion’s Roger Hallum talk about climate change for the first 30 minutes of this video. I’m trying to find time to analyse his claims that we’ve already locked in a 2.2 degree rise in temperature. The way Roger emphasises that climate breakdown will happen very quickly through food shortages haunts me and makes me want to create contingencies.

On the other hand, XR could be using more extreme scientific reports to back up their claims, with an aim to getting people agitated and involved in their movement. I am firmly of the mind that creating a panic around the situation although will stimulate a rebellion may well make people complacent about taking personal action.

I want to dig into the facts on this talk to understand whether he’s right. Here are the big pieces of his argument:

  • There will be no more arctic sea ice in the summer by 2022.
  • The rise in temperature since pre-industry is 1.2 degrees (I found 0.85 from IPCC)
  • Carbon has a delay affect in terms of global warming and therefore we’ve already locked in another 0.6 degrees.
  • When we stop producing emissions the particulate matter in the air will result in less reflection of the suns rays resulting in another locked in 0.6 degree rise in temperature.

Has anyone looked into these matters and what is your interpretation?


There are a few very knowledgeable people in our community. I wonder what @oxonjan, @Richard_Benwell, @Gwyn_Ingman and @chriswilliams opinions on this matter are?

Hi Tom, did he explain why would there be food shortages?x

Marcus- great to have you here cous! Welcome!

He did. As a farmer himself in Wales for over 20 years, he understands this stuff better than others. The first thing was that due to sever weather he’s had to give up farming without poly tunnels, and is seeing a lot of his peers move out of the industry. The second thing he pointed to was a paper produced off the back of a freak cold events in Southern Spain which annihilated crops; according to the paper of that happens three years running Europe will have major food shortages.

Outside of this I’m reading about farmers being displaced off their land in the Himalayan foot hills, and understand that before he war in Syria over 1 million were displaced because of desertification.

Recent reports on desertification predict 1 billion people being displaced by 2050, but these are very conservative.

Just interested if anyone else has any things to support or counter the claims that within the next 10 years it could happen…?

Linking this as it’s relevant:

Hi Tom, sorry it’s Kwiz!

I’ve spent the past year researching ways to mitigate the effects of a climate crisis on our property, what sort of infrastructure to invest in, etc. Been quite eye-opening but not what I expected at all.

Your chap Roger is a rare fish by the way. Thought you might find this advert interesting.

Sorry Kwiz - get a bit lost with family nick names! I’m not surprised he’s letting it out or selling it especially as he’s working full time on XR. And also not surprised he’s putting a positive spin on his business, everyone’s got to play the game…

I’m not sure this undermines what he’s saying though…